uw vermogen beschermd
Vergelijk de prijs van goud en zilver
Plus500: A leading CFD provider
Uw vermogen loopt risico
Plus500UK Ltd is geautoriseerd & gereguleerd
door de FCA
De demo mode is vrij van risico
Global MarketCap Crypto:
Max Keizer
dinsdag 14 mei 2019 - 06:06 Is China’s Belt & Road a Decade Too Late?

The conventional narrative holds that Chinas Belt & Road Initiative is cementing Chinas global superpower status. Theres an alternative narrative, however: its a decade too late. From this perspective, global trade has reached the top of the S-Curve and is in the stagnation phase, which will be followed by decline or collapse.

Global trade growth loses momentum as trade tensions persist (WTO)

Why could global trade decline as a secular trend? The answer of the momenttrade wars is more a symptom than the disease itself, which is the benefits of globalization have declined and the negative consequences are becoming unavoidable.

Trade is never free; there are always losers to any trade, and if the benefits accrue to the few at the expense of the many, the gains no longer offset the losses. Resistance to globalization is rising, and national interests are gaining political ground.

Then there are the strategic considerations of trade. Do you really want your nation overly dependent on other nations for energy, food, semiconductors and capital? Food security makes little sense by itself; the spectrum of autarchy / self-sufficiency must also include energy, critical technologies and capitalhuman, institutional and financial.

Going forward, the last thing nations will want is increasing dependence on Chinaor any other hegemon.

Chinas debt diplomacy pressuring partners to borrow immense sums from China, backed by collateral like harbors and portsis already drawing resistance. If global trade has indeed topped out and shifted to secular decline, all the strategic reasons to limit dependency on other nations will start becoming more important than private-sector profits reaped by politically powerful corporations.

Then theres the asymmetric inefficiencies of diesel trucks versus sea transport. The maritime road in the one belt, one road (OBOR) scheme is nothing new; these routes through the Indian Ocean linking Africa, the Mideast, India and Asia have been followed for hundreds of years. China isnt bringing any new efficiencies to these longstanding sea routes.

As for moving goods by truck: its up to five times more expensive in terms of fuel efficiency and ecological impacts than shipping by sea. Furthermore, unlike the sea, roads require constant maintenance: not only is trucking expensive, maintaining thousands of trucks and thousands of kilometers of roads is costly. These costs dont scale: every truck and every kilometer of road costs money to maintain.

So where are the economic advantages in trucking goods thousands of kilometers? Landlocked regions which depend on trucks already might see some benefit, but are those benefits significant enough to make the entire OBOR investment profitable?

Lets say diesel fuel costs rise going forward: what are the consequences? Depending on how much fuel costs rise, trade earns diminishing returns for all but the highest-value goods.

Then theres security. The world is becoming more dangerous as non-state entities gain disruptive technologies. Hundreds of kilometers of roads through trackless wastelands are essentially impossible to secure against primitive IEDs (improvised explosive devices), and more advanced threats make hundreds of kilometers of natural gas pipelines and other infrastructure through sparsely populated regions vulnerable.

If trade declines, fuel costs increase, security emerges as an issue and strategic concerns reduce the appeal of globalization and dependency on others, the Belt & Road becomes a bottomless boondoggle. Maybe a decade ago, when trade and globalization were on the upswing, the Belt & Road would have been an instant success.

But now, the tidal forces that supported globalization and dependency are reversing. In a decade hence, will China reign supreme as the global hegemon as a result of the Belt & Road, or will the entire Initiative be viewed as a colossal malinvestment that undermined Chinas attempt to wield soft power via debt diplomacy and trade-based dependency?

The world appears to be tiring of globalization and hegemons, and that trend may doom the Belt & Road to irrelevancyor worse.


Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($6.95 ebook, $12 print, $13.08 audiobook ): Read the first section for free in PDF format.

My new mystery The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake is a ridiculously affordable $1.29 (Kindle) or $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF)

My book Money and Work Unchained is now $6.95 for the Kindle ebook and $15 for the print edition. Read the first section for free in PDF format.

If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via . New benefit for subscribers/patrons: a monthly Q&A where I respond to your questions/topics.

Vergelijk de prijs van goud en zilver
Powered By:

Daily Headlines

Meld je aan voor de de dagelijkse mailing. Je ontvangt dan elke avond de meest opmerkelijke headlines van de dag op het door jouw opgegeven e-mailadres.

Bedankt voor je aanmelding.

Vanaf heden ontvang je dagelijks de meest opmerkelijke headlines van de dag.
Je kunt het venster nu sluiten.

Over is in 2009 opgericht door Richard de Feber om de andere kant van het economische nieuws te belichten. Veel van het nieuws omtrent de economie en de crisis dat wordt gepubliceerd door de gevestigde media is totaal niet gebaseerd op de huidige werkelijkheid. Mensen beginnen wakker te worden uit de droom dat de economie altijd maar door kan groeien. De gemiddelde burger wordt steeds slimmer en gaat zelf op onderzoek uit. heeft een unieke samenstelling van nieuws voor u geselecteerd, zodat u altijd op de hoogte bent van wat er speelt in de wereld. Op staan dagelijks nieuwe headlines over de economie, goud, cryptocurrencies en nog tal van andere onderwerpen. U kunt zelf bepalen welke onderwerpen u als nieuws wenst te zien op U kunt de rubrieken zelf in of uitschakelen en zo het nieuws te personaliseren.

Heeft u zelf interessant nieuws dat u wilt delen? Tip de redactie en stuur een e-mail naar [email protected].



Bedankt voor uw bericht. Wij gaan er zo snel mogelijk mee aan de slag! U kunt het venster nu sluiten.

Categorieën in- en uitschakelen
Personal Finance
Economie Algemeen
Crisis & Recessie
(Geo-) politiek
Oorlog & Conflicten
Corruptie & Schandaal
Trends & Transitie
Miljonairs & Miljardairs