Sharp-eyed readers may have noticed a little dig in Independent Strategy’s note on sovereign contagion. Belgium, it seems, could be next in line for the contagion treatment, according to the research house:

The countries in the ‘contagion area’ of the Eurozone (namely Spain, Portugal, Greece, Ireland and unexpectedly, Belgium) account for about one-fifth of Eurozone GDP.

Yet Belgium is a mess. Its sovereign debt to GDP is 100%, up from a trough of 84% a few years ago, and its budget deficit is 5% of GDP.

Belgium’s public debt is held abroad to the tune of 69% of GDP and its private sector foreign liabilities are another 162% of GDP, giving a total percentage of foreign credit dependence (charitably excluding inter-company borrowing) only surpassed by the UK and Ireland in the EU (where banks have huge FX liabilities) — see Figure 3.

On these ratios, Belgium leaves the PIIGs at the starting block. And Belgium’s overall securitised debt burden (public and private) is only surpassed by that of Ireland.