betekenis van het woord CONSECUTIVE

The French economy is driving Europe

It is preliminary PMI day in Europe, meaning we are getting the first read on growth across the European Union in September.

It is preliminary PMI day in Europe, meaning we are getting the first read on growth across the European Union in September.

Germany missed growth forecasts for a second CONSECUTIVE month due to weaker than expected service sector growth, but still posted decent numbers overall.

France performed far better than expected and is now the standout nation in the continent, overtaking Germany for the first time since 2012.

Over two years ago, in March of 2012, when it was taboo to even suggest the Fed may be forced to admit failure once again with its then "final" monetary intervention Operation Twist (following similar failures with QE1 and QE2), we explained clearly "Why The Fed Will Have To Do At Least Another $3.6 Trillion In Quantitative Easing." The premise was simple: while the Fed had succeeded in raising the notional amount of traditional bank liabilities, primarily deposits (through a matched reserve expansion) courtesy of unsterilized QE, it was failing to expand the universe of money-equivalent collateral in the shadow banking system. In fact, as the following chart shows, the deleveraging in shadow banking has continued, and aside for a tiny bounce in Q4 2012, resumed its downward path in Q1 2013, recording 19 of 20 CONSECUTIVE quarterly drops (primarily on the back of nearly $3 trillion in ABS deleveraging and $1.2 trillion in repos).

Regardless, we were right, and as of last Friday, the Fed's balance sheet was $750 billion higher, and rising at $85 billion each month, confirming that the true underlying economy is now worse than ever before, and to all those claiming the US is recovering we have a simply thought experiment (because it will never become an actuality) - have the Fed halt and undo its monetary interventions. Yeah... That's what we thought.

Europa: grafiek jeugdwerkloosheid gaat op de parabolische toer

Ireland has seen its youth unemployment rate drop for 10 of the last 11 months and has dropped to a 'mere' 26.6% - the lowest since July 2010 - in what is truly the only possible silver lining in today's absolutely dreadful data release. All four of the other PIIGS nations now have broken the dismal Maginot Line of 40% youth unemployment with Italy finally joining the club (Italy 40.5%, Portugal 42.5%, Spain 58.2%, and Greece 62.5%). What is even more concerning is that not only are these rates extremely high but they are accelerating with all four of these dark nations seeing their rates rising faster than in recent months (this was the 2nd fastest rise in Greek youth unemployment ever). Overall, Europe's youth unemployment rate continues to march higher (to 24.4%) having not fallen for 24 months, but it is Spain that is the 'winner' with 41 CONSECUTIVE months without a drop in youth unemployment. With welfare benefits running dry, and Sweden and Switzerland already running hot, we fear this summer may bring the much-feared unrest so many have been concerned about.

Bankroet in China roept spook der uiteenspattende kredietzeepbellen op

For the first time, a mainland Chinese company has defaulted on its bonds. SunTech Power Holdings has been clinging on by its teeth but after failing to repay $541mm of notes due on March 15th - and following four CONSECUTIVE quarters of losses through the first quarter of 2012 and since then having failed to report quarterly earnings - owed to Chinese domestic lenders, the firm is restructuring. As Bloomberg reports, Chinese solar companies are struggling after taking on debt to expand supply, leading to a glut that forced down prices and squeezed profits - and most notably were unable to renegotiate its liabilities and obtain “additional flexibility” from creditors. This is highly unusual and perhaps is the beginning of a trend for Chinese firms. We already know the little discussed but gargantuan size of China's corporate bond market (which dwarves the US relative to GDP) as the mis-allocated credit tsunami of the last few years begins to hit its lending limit - just as Chinese corporate leverage is surging. If Suntech, the world’s largest solar-panel maker as recently as 2011, could not renegotiate its loans, we humbly suggest there are more problem firms out there about to find their friendly local banker a little less enthusiastic - just as Marc Faber warned recently.

Manipulatie van de Amerikaanse huizenmarkt.

The rebound in housing is now in full swing. Housing starts are up, existing home sales are gaining pace, inventory is down, and prices are on the rise. According to a recent report by Corelogic “House prices are up 6.3% year-over-year in October, the largest increase since 2006 and the eighth CONSECUTIVE increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis.” Many experts are now predicting that 2013 will be even better, in fact, J.P. Morgan thinks that prices could gain another 10 percent in the next 12 months. Here’s the story from the Wall Street Journal: